San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas homered to right center (392 feet).2–6
- 6Cronenworth singled to right, Sheets scored, Laureano to third.2–5
- 4Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Marte scored, Carroll to third.1–5
- 4Carroll doubled to right, Barrosa scored, Marte to third.1–4
- 3Locklear homered to left (393 feet).1–3
- 3Merrill doubled to center, Machado scored.1–2
- 2Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Alexander scored, Thomas to third.0–2
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. to second, Carroll to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML SD -125 / ARI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- SD: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −10 | SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +6 Elo | SD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 15th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 26–2825th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–49 | 56–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–33 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 37–16 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–65 | 58–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 16–17 ARI in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 33.