Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Blaze AlexanderBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Carroll homered to right (424 feet), Marte scored.1–6
- 4Alexander homered to right (380 feet).1–4
- 2Karros singled to right, Bernabel scored.1–3
- 1Alexander doubled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Marte scored and Perdomo scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 66%
- ML COL +180 / ARI -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 67.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −7 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +126 Elo | ARI 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–42 | Road vs home | 27–3025th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301381 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–59 | 58–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 53–55 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–62 | 59–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–23 ARI in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 32.