San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Iglesias singled to right, Bogaerts scored.3–2
- 9O'Hearn homered to right center (391 feet).2–2
- 7Bogaerts homered to left (421 feet).1–2
- 2Thomas hit sacrifice fly to left, Locklear scored.0–2
- 1Carroll homered to center (443 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -135 / ARI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- SD: Elo 48.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +2 | SD: Nestor Cortes: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +14 Elo | ARI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 27–2924th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–50 | 57–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 37–16 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders | 48–66 | 59–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 17–18 ARI in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 35.