Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Burger singled to left, Haggerty scored, Seager to third.6–7
- 9Tellez homered to right center (413 feet).6–6
- 6Langford homered to left (410 feet), Seager scored and Semien scored.6–5
- 6Seager singled to right, Smith scored.6–2
- 6Alexander homered to left center (385 feet).6–1
- 3Seager doubled to right, Jung scored.5–1
- 3Perdomo homered to right (395 feet), Marte scored.5–0
- 3Carroll homered to right (349 feet), McCarthy scored.3–0
- 2Locklear homered to left (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML ARI +140 / TEX -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -149
- ARI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +17 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +29 Elo | TEX 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–31 | Road vs home | 36–2410th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–58 | 62–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 61–57 | 50–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–7 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.
- Sep 11TEX 4 @ ARI 14Picked ARI 60%Hit
- Sep 10TEX 0 @ ARI 6Picked ARI 61%Hit
- May 29ARI 1 @ TEX 6Picked TEX 55%Hit
- May 28ARI 2 @ TEX 4Picked TEX 54%Hit
- Nov 1TEX 5 @ ARI 0PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 31TEX 11 @ ARI 7PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 30TEX 3 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 28ARI 9 @ TEX 1PlayoffsPicked TEX 54%Miss