Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kirk singled to left, Bichette scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to third.5–6
- 8Varsho walked, Schneider scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Bichette to third.5–4
- 8Bichette singled to center, Giménez scored, Schneider to third.5–3
- 8Semien homered to left center (393 feet), Carter scored.5–2
- 7Kirk homered to right center (382 feet), Varsho scored.3–2
- 2Higashioka homered to left center (391 feet), Semien scored and Tellez scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML TEX -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- TEX -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −18 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +7 Elo | TOR 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–35 | Road vs home | 40–202nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–60 | 70–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 28–31 |
| Underdog | 33–23 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–70 | 69–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–7 TOR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.