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Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast

FinalDBACKS.TV, MLB.TV, Rangers Sports Network, Victory+, MLBN

Away

Diamondbacks

59-62

6–4

at

Home

Rangers

61-61

ARI 43%TEX 57%

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Globe Life Field · DBACKS.TV, MLB.TV, Rangers Sports Network, Victory+, MLBN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.

TEX75%50%75%ARIStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Diamondbacks
  • Ketel MarteBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Rangers
  • Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Marte homered to right center (413 feet), Alexander scored and Perdomo scored.6–4
  • 9McCann homered to left (361 feet).3–4
  • 8Jung doubled to center, Burger scored.2–4
  • 5Perdomo homered to right center (400 feet).2–3
  • 4Burger homered to left center (434 feet), Carter scored.1–3
  • 3Marte singled to left, Perdomo scored.1–1
  • 1Carter singled to right, Smith scored, Semien to third.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 57%

LeanMiss
ARI 43%TEX 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
TEX 57%
ML ARI +125 / TEX -150
Pre-line forecast
TEX 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TEX 52%
Ratings vs. market
−5.4 pts
TEX: Elo 52.1%, market 57.4%
Fair odds
TEX -135
ARI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ARI 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorARITEXWhy
Team rating15061510Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−1−8ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +14 EloTEX 52.1%
Market-implied ratingsTEX 58.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTEX 57.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTEX 57.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
ARIStatTEX
6th of 304.9Runs scored4.125th of 30
25th of 304.9Runs allowed3.61st of 30
17th of 300.0Margin+0.58th of 30
4th of 307–3Last 104–618th of 30
16th of 3028–32Road vs home37–2511th of 30
27th of 301495Opponent Elo149724th of 30
15th of 301506Elo rating151013th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DiamondbacksRangers
145015001550league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonARITEX
Run line62–5862–59
Last 108–24–6
Favorite29–3729–36
Underdog33–2133–23
Overs–unders62–5851–70
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ARI 7–8 TEX in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.