Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suwinski homered to left center (376 feet).3–2
- 7Shaw hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–2
- 7Kiner-Falefa doubled to center, Triolo scored.2–1
- 4Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Suzuki scored, Crow-Armstrong out stretching at second.1–1
- 4McCutchen doubled to right, N. Gonzales scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML PIT +155 / CHC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −7 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +84 Elo | CHC 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–42 | Road vs home | 36–204th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 26th of 301464 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–61 | 57–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 38–40 |
| Underdog | 49–34 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 52–70 | 62–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 11–22 CHC in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 33.