Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-3
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Davis hit sacrifice fly to center, Canario scored.2–5
- 8Triolo scored on throwing error by catcher Heineman, Canario stole third.2–4
- 8Triolo scored on throwing error by catcher Heineman, Canario stole third.2–4
- 7Davis scored on Little wild pitch.2–3
- 7Davis scored on Little wild pitch.2–3
- 3Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to first, Horwitz scored, Pham to second.2–2
- 3Bichette singled to right, Barger scored.2–1
- 3Guerrero Jr. grounded out to third, Springer scored.1–1
- 2Canario singled to center, N. Gonzales scored, Triolo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML TOR -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +40 Elo | TOR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 34–2916th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 8th of 301522 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–54 | 63–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 12–27 |
| Underdog | 41–21 | 51–35 |
| Overs–unders | 72–53 | 52–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–1 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.