Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carter homered to right center (395 feet), Seager scored.10–4
- 8Springer homered to left center (434 feet), Straw scored.8–4
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (439 feet).8–2
- 6Langford homered to left (401 feet), Smith scored.8–1
- 5Seager homered to left (336 feet).6–1
- 4Heim singled to center, Burger scored and Freeman scored.5–1
- 4Burger singled to right, Semien scored.3–1
- 2Kirk homered to left center (414 feet).2–1
- 2Semien homered to left (367 feet), Tellez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TEX +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–37 | Road vs home | 42–201st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 18th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–61 | 71–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 29–32 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 54–70 | 71–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–9 TOR in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.