Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Swanson hit sacrifice fly to right, Kelly scored, Happ to third.3–4
- 6Kelly singled to center, Suzuki scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.3–3
- 6Bart doubled to left, Suwinski scored and N. Gonzales scored.3–2
- 5Swanson doubled to left, Happ scored on error, Swanson safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Pham.1–2
- 3Horwitz doubled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.1–1
- 2Happ singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML PIT +155 / CHC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +91 Elo | CHC 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–43 | Road vs home | 37–215th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 26th of 301464 | Elo rating | 15384th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–62 | 58–64 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 39–41 |
| Underdog | 50–35 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 52–72 | 62–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 12–23 CHC in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 35.