Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bernabel singled to center, Tovar scored.3–4
- 7Tovar homered to right center (413 feet).3–3
- 6Freeland doubled to center, Freeman scored.3–2
- 3Ritter singled to right, Karros scored and Doyle scored.2–2
- 2Ohtani singled to center, Rojas scored.2–0
- 2Rushing hit sacrifice fly to right, Call scored, Rojas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 72%
- ML LAD -300 / COL +240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 70.6%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +152 Elo | LAD 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 72.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 19–4330th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301551 | Elo rating | 138530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–72 | 62–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 40–64 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 60–58 |
| Overs–unders | 65–59 | 56–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 26–6 COL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 32.