San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Iglesias scored.2–3
- 7T. Hernández homered to center (400 feet).1–3
- 3Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeland scored.1–2
- 3Ohtani grounded into fielder's choice to second, Conforto scored, Rojas out at second, Freeland to third.1–1
- 2Laureano homered to left (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML SD +120 / LAD -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | SD: Wandy Peralta (no track record yet) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +33 Elo | LAD 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 9th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 38–249th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–53 | 51–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 39–62 |
| Underdog | 39–16 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–69 | 64–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 16–22 LAD in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 38.