Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to left, Tatis Jr. scored.2–6
- 7González grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Duran scored and Story scored, Yoshida safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Bogaerts.2–5
- 6Cronenworth walked, Bogaerts scored, Laureano to second, Merrill to third.0–5
- 6Bogaerts singled to left, Machado scored.0–4
- 5Tatis Jr. singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Tatis Jr. out stretching at second.0–3
- 3Arraez doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Fermin scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML BOS +130 / SD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SD: Elo 52.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +16 Elo | SD 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 37–203rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–53 | 64–53 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 27–37 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 59–59 | 50–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.