Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Loftin doubled to center, Frazier scored.5–8
- 8Frazier singled to center, Yastrzemski scored.4–8
- 8Garcia homered to left (374 feet).3–8
- 8Pasquantino homered to right center (405 feet).2–8
- 7Abreu singled to right, González scored, Bregman to second.1–8
- 4Bregman singled to left, Toro scored.1–7
- 4Frazier hit sacrifice fly to left, Perez scored.1–6
- 3Rafaela singled to center, Story scored.0–6
- 1Duran homered to center (419 feet), Abreu scored and Refsnyder scored.0–5
- 1Refsnyder singled to center, Bregman scored and González scored, Abreu to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML KC +130 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | KC: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +40 Elo | BOS 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 37–217th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–57 | 61–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–33 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 40–24 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–65 | 54–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–11 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.