Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Anthony singled to center, Abreu scored, Rafaela to third.1–2
- 7Abreu hit sacrifice fly to left, Story scored.1–1
- 2Walker homered to left center (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -125 / BOS +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 47.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–23 | Road vs home | 34–2110th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 7th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–57 | 58–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–47 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 31–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–61 | 53–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–4 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.