Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Refsnyder grounded out to second, Abreu scored.1–6
- 4Wong hit sacrifice fly to right, Toro scored, Abreu to third.1–5
- 4Abreu hit sacrifice bunt, Rafaela scored, Toro to second.1–4
- 4Story scored on a balk, Rafaela to second on a balk.1–3
- 4Story scored on a balk, Rafaela to second on a balk.1–3
- 4Rafaela singled to left, González scored, Story to third.1–2
- 4Story singled to right, Anthony scored, Story to second, González to third.1–1
- 4Correa homered to left center (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML HOU -130 / BOS +110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −3 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +6 Elo | HOU 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 36–216th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15238th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–59 | 60–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–48 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 49–62 | 54–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–6 BOS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.