Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Story doubled to right, Refsnyder scored.3–7
- 5Diaz singled to center, Correa scored, Diaz to second, Walker to third.3–6
- 4Toro homered to left (382 feet), Rafaela scored.2–6
- 3Story homered to left (368 feet), Refsnyder scored.2–4
- 3Refsnyder singled to right, González scored.2–2
- 1González homered to center (415 feet).2–1
- 1Walker homered to left center (433 feet), Correa scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML HOU +120 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.3%, market 55.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -126
- HOU +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −1 | HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 35–219th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–58 | 59–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–48 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–62 | 53–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–5 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.