Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yoshida homered to right center (377 feet), Story scored.10–2
- 8Cronenworth singled to left, Iglesias scored, Laureano to second.8–2
- 8Laureano grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Johnson scored, O'Hearn out at second, Iglesias to third.8–1
- 8Wong doubled to left, Rafaela scored, Toro scored and Abreu scored.8–0
- 5Bregman grounded out to third, Wong scored, Anthony to second.5–0
- 4Abreu homered to right center (423 feet), Story scored.4–0
- 4Duran scored, Story to second on pickoff error by pitcher Pivetta.2–0
- 4Duran scored, Story to second on pickoff error by pitcher Pivetta.2–0
- 4Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored, Duran to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 61%
- ML BOS +145 / SD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- SD: Elo 55.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -156
- BOS +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +17 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +40 Elo | SD 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 36–192nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–53 | 64–51 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 27–35 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 57–59 | 48–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.