Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Story singled to center, Wong scored.7–3
- 8Pasquantino singled to right, Tolbert scored.7–2
- 7India homered to left (351 feet), Perez scored and Frazier scored.6–2
- 4Isbel singled to center, India scored and Rave scored.3–2
- 3Witt Jr. singled to left, Yastrzemski scored.1–2
- 1González doubled to center, Duran scored and Story scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML KC +120 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.1%, market 56.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -132
- KC +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Dustin May: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +43 Elo | BOS 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 12th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 39–213rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–59 | 63–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 15–33 | 30–36 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders | 49–65 | 56–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–13 BOS in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.