Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Story singled to center, Bregman scored, Abreu to third.2–6
- 7Abreu singled to right, Duran scored and Hamilton scored, Bregman to third.2–5
- 7Grichuk doubled to center, Garcia scored.2–3
- 6Story singled to center, Bregman scored and Abreu scored.1–3
- 4Garcia doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–1
- 3Duran doubled to left, González scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 67%
- ML KC +195 / BOS -235
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.5%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -207
- KC +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +19 | KC: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +53 Elo | BOS 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 38–216th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–58 | 62–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–33 | 29–36 |
| Underdog | 40–25 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–65 | 55–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–12 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.