Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting3-4
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Laureano singled to left, Bogaerts scored, O'Hearn to second.4–5
- 9Anthony hit a ground rule double, Rafaela scored.4–4
- 5Laureano walked, Merrill scored, O'Hearn to second, Bogaerts to third.3–4
- 5O'Hearn walked, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to second, Merrill to third.3–3
- 3Bogaerts singled to center, Arraez scored, Machado to third.3–2
- 3Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Story scored.3–1
- 3Duran scored, Story to third on a balk.2–1
- 3Duran scored on a balk, Story to third on a balk.2–1
- 2Bogaerts homered to left (358 feet).1–1
- 1Duran singled to center, Bregman scored, Duran thrown out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML BOS +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- SD: Elo 51.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 36–204th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–53 | 64–52 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 34–16 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 58–59 | 49–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.