Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hoppe singled to center, Moore scored and Ward scored, Adell to second.5–6
- 5Neto doubled to left, Teodosio scored and O'Hoppe scored.5–4
- 4Smith walked, Freeland scored, Betts to second, Ohtani to third.5–2
- 4Betts singled to right, Call scored, Ohtani to second, Freeland to third.4–2
- 2Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to right, Moncada scored.3–2
- 2Ward homered to right center (375 feet).3–1
- 1Smith homered to left (407 feet), Betts scored.3–0
- 1Betts singled to left, Ohtani scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -200 / LAA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -177
- LAA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +53 Elo | LAD 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 32–3019th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 146227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–69 | 64–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 39–61 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 53–32 |
| Overs–unders | 63–57 | 68–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–7 LAA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.