Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy homered to right (343 feet), Betts scored and Smith scored.4–7
- 8Ohtani homered to right center (389 feet).1–7
- 6Neto homered to center (397 feet).0–7
- 5Campero grounded out to shortstop, Ward scored, Moncada to second.0–6
- 5Moncada singled to right, Schanuel scored, Ward to third.0–5
- 5Trout singled to right, Neto scored and Teodosio scored, Schanuel to second.0–4
- 1Moncada singled to right, Trout scored, Ward to third.0–2
- 1Neto homered to right center (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -175 / LAA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +83 Elo | LAD 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 30–3022nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301552 | Elo rating | 145827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–67 | 62–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–59 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 51–32 |
| Overs–unders | 61–57 | 66–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–5 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.