Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Morel homered to left (424 feet).5–4
- 3Trout homered to left (433 feet), Moore scored and Schanuel scored.4–4
- 3Schanuel singled to right, Rengifo scored, Moore to third.4–1
- 3Caminero homered to center (404 feet).4–0
- 2Fortes homered to left center (391 feet).3–0
- 1Caminero homered to left center (447 feet), Simpson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / LAA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TB: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +32 Elo | TB 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 30–2921st of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 145927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–57 | 59–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 37–19 | 48–31 |
| Overs–unders | 47–68 | 63–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–8 LAA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.