Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward homered to left center (397 feet), Schanuel scored and Trout scored.5–8
- 7Neto doubled to center, Campero scored and Moore scored.5–5
- 6Trout scored on Vasil wild pitch, Ward to second on wild pitch by Vasil.5–3
- 6Trout scored on Vasil wild pitch, Ward to second on wild pitch by Vasil.5–3
- 6Ward singled to left, Schanuel scored, Trout to third.5–2
- 6Neto homered to left center (412 feet).5–1
- 3Montgomery singled to left, Sosa scored, Robert Jr. to third.5–0
- 1Montgomery homered to right (376 feet), Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored.4–0
- 1Robert Jr. singled to center, Sosa scored, Benintendi to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 55%
- ML CHW +115 / LAA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 54.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +34 Elo | LAA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–37 | Road vs home | 28–2821st of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 29th of 301436 | Elo rating | 145726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–45 | 57–54 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 66–40 | 48–31 |
| Overs–unders | 53–58 | 61–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–8 LAA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.