Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Angels- Gustavo CamperoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rojas homered to center (399 feet).6–3
- 8Sosa singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.5–3
- 7Neto hit sacrifice fly to left, O'Hoppe scored.4–3
- 6Montgomery homered to center (433 feet).4–2
- 5Campero homered to center (438 feet), Rengifo scored.3–2
- 4Robert Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.3–0
- 2Sosa homered to left center (413 feet).2–0
- 2Benintendi homered to right (375 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML CHW +105 / LAA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 58.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +1 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +62 Elo | LAA 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3016–37 | Road vs home | 28–2618th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301432 | Elo rating | 146026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–45 | 57–52 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 64–40 | 48–31 |
| Overs–unders | 52–57 | 60–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–8 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.