Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Adell singled to right, Trout scored on error, Adell safe at second on error by shortstop Walls, Ward safe at third on error.7–3
- 5Adell homered to left (410 feet), Ward scored.7–2
- 4Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Walls scored, Simpson out at third.7–0
- 4Simpson doubled to left, Feduccia scored, Walls to third.6–0
- 4Walls hit sacrifice bunt, Mangum scored, Feduccia to third.5–0
- 4Mangum singled to right, Caminero scored and J. Lowe scored.4–0
- 4B. Lowe homered to center (411 feet), Díaz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML TB +105 / LAA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 48.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +13 Elo | TB 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–29 | Road vs home | 30–2820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 146126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–57 | 59–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 36–19 | 48–31 |
| Overs–unders | 46–68 | 62–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–8 LAA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.