Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-3
- Adrian HouserPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Neto doubled to left, Teodosio scored.1–5
- 3Ward singled to center, Schanuel scored and Trout scored.1–4
- 2Adell homered to left center (428 feet), Moncada scored.1–2
- 1Caminero hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML TB +100 / LAA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- LAA: Elo 43.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −4 | TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +49 Elo | TB 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 20th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 29–2821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 145926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–56 | 58–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 48–31 |
| Overs–unders | 46–67 | 62–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–7 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.