Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vierling homered to left center (374 feet), Jones scored and Torres scored.5–6
- 8Adell homered to right center (399 feet).5–3
- 5Neto homered to left center (421 feet).4–3
- 5Campero homered to left center (388 feet), Moore scored.3–3
- 2Báez singled to left, Greene scored and McKinstry scored.1–3
- 2Torkelson homered to left (389 feet).1–1
- 2O'Hoppe doubled to left, Rengifo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- DET 70%
- ML LAA +225 / DET -275
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- DET: Elo 60.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -238
- LAA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +14 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +76 Elo | DET 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 71.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 37–239th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–55 | 57–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 39–40 |
| Underdog | 49–31 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders | 63–52 | 63–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–9 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 17.