Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alan RodenBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Thomas HatchPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gasper grounded out to first, Lewis scored, Martin to second, Lee to third.9–4
- 6Roden homered to right center (406 feet).8–4
- 6Martin homered to left (395 feet).7–4
- 5Keaschall hit a ground rule double, Jeffers scored.6–4
- 5Jeffers doubled to center, Wallner scored.5–4
- 4Lee homered to right center (430 feet).4–4
- 3Carpenter homered to right (414 feet), Keith scored.3–4
- 3McKinstry homered to left center (386 feet).3–2
- 2Torkelson homered to left center (371 feet).3–1
- 2Lee scored on Flaherty wild pitch, Julien to second on wild pitch by Flaherty.3–0
- 2Lee scored on Flaherty wild pitch, Julien to second on wild pitch by Flaherty.3–0
- 1Keaschall doubled to left, Wallner scored and Roden scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML MIN +170 / DET -205
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- DET: Elo 56.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -181
- MIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −12 | MIN: Pierson Ohl: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +45 Elo | DET 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3023–36 | Road vs home | 37–229th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–57 | 57–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–37 | 39–39 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders | 52–61 | 62–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 15–19 DET in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 34.