Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Travis AdamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Dingler homered to left (368 feet).3–6
- 6Carpenter homered to right (437 feet), Torres scored.3–5
- 6Torres grounded into fielder's choice to first, Báez scored, Keith out at second.3–3
- 6Wallner homered to center (437 feet).3–2
- 5Pérez homered to right (372 feet), Torkelson scored.2–2
- 5Larnach homered to right (434 feet).2–0
- 1Jeffers homered to center (420 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML MIN +160 / DET -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- DET: Elo 55.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -170
- MIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −9 | MIN: Travis Adams (no track record yet) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +41 Elo | DET 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3022–35 | Road vs home | 36–218th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 151810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–56 | 56–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–37 | 38–38 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders | 50–61 | 60–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–18 DET in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.