Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jones tripled to right, Vierling scored and Torkelson scored.6–3
- 5Keaschall singled to left, Jeffers scored.6–1
- 5Jeffers doubled to center, Wallner scored.5–1
- 4Larnach homered to right center (409 feet).4–1
- 3Carpenter doubled to center, Keith scored.3–1
- 1Keaschall homered to left center (402 feet), Clemens scored.3–0
- 1Clemens doubled to right, Jeffers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML MIN +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- DET: Elo 59.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −4 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +69 Elo | DET 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3022–36 | Road vs home | 37–218th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–57 | 57–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–37 | 39–38 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders | 51–61 | 61–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–19 DET in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 33.