Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rengifo homered to right (408 feet), Trout scored.5–9
- 6Greene homered to right (359 feet), Torres scored.3–9
- 6O'Hoppe singled to left, Rengifo scored.3–7
- 5Schanuel homered to right (371 feet), Teodosio scored.2–7
- 4Carpenter homered to right (354 feet), Keith scored and Torres scored.0–7
- 4Torres singled to right, Báez scored, Keith to third.0–4
- 2Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to right, Sweeney scored.0–3
- 1McKinstry singled to left, Greene scored, Torkelson to second.0–2
- 1Greene singled to right, Carpenter scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML LAA +155 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- DET: Elo 60.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 5.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +70 Elo | DET 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 18th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 38–249th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301460 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–55 | 57–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 39–42 |
| Underdog | 51–31 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders | 65–52 | 65–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–10 DET in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 19.