Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Victor MederosPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Adell singled to left, Ward scored, Moore to second.6–7
- 9Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to center, Rengifo scored.6–6
- 9Ohtani homered to right (404 feet).6–5
- 5Pages walked, Freeman scored, Muncy to second, T. Hernández to third.5–5
- 5T. Hernández singled to left, Betts scored, Freeman to second.4–5
- 4Teodosio doubled to left, Rengifo scored.3–5
- 3Ward homered to center (413 feet).3–4
- 2Rushing homered to right (386 feet), Freeland scored.3–3
- 1Adell grounded out to shortstop, Ward scored.1–3
- 1Moncada doubled to center, Trout scored, Ward to third.1–2
- 1Ward singled to left, Schanuel scored, Trout to third.1–1
- 1T. Hernández singled to left, Ohtani scored, Betts to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -180 / LAA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.3%, market 61.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -157
- LAA +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +6 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Victor Mederos (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +59 Elo | LAD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 31–3021st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 146127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–68 | 63–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–60 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 52–32 |
| Overs–unders | 62–57 | 67–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–6 LAA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.