San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting4-5
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill homered to left center (391 feet).5–1
- 4Cronenworth singled to center, Laureano scored, Cronenworth out stretching at second.4–1
- 2Iglesias homered to left (358 feet), Laureano scored.3–1
- 1Flores reached on infield single to third, Schmitt scored, Devers to second.1–1
- 1Machado scored, Bogaerts to third on a balk.1–0
- 1Machado scored on a balk, Bogaerts to third on a balk.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML SD +105 / SF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- SF: Elo 50.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +13 | SD: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +6 Elo | SF 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 15th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 29–2922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 5th of 301533 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–53 | 48–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–37 | 19–52 |
| Underdog | 38–16 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 51–68 | 55–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 20–13 SF in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 33.