Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wood doubled to left, Young scored and Adams scored.8–0
- 6DeJong singled to center, Abrams scored, Bell to third.6–0
- 4DeJong singled to center, Young scored, Bell to third.5–0
- 2Abrams homered to right (340 feet), Wood scored.4–0
- 2Wood doubled to right, Adams scored and Lile scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 60%
- ML WSH +140 / SF -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SF: Elo 60.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +71 Elo | SF 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3024–34 | Road vs home | 29–2718th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 149920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–59 | 48–69 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 19–50 |
| Underdog | 55–40 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 62–54 | 55–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 10–8 SF in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.