Athletics at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams singled to left, Hassell III scored.1–2
- 6Adams homered to left (354 feet).1–1
- 6Soderstrom homered to right center (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 57%
- ML ATH -145 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 50.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATH -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +9 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH 0 Elo | WSH 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–31 | Road vs home | 21–3529th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 26th of 301460 | Elo rating | 144228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–55 | 55–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 49–39 | 53–38 |
| Overs–unders | 62–53 | 62–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–4 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.
