Athletics at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting5-6, 3 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-5, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9House walked, García Jr. scored, Lowe to second, Bell to third.16–7
- 9García Jr. singled to right, Young scored and Hassell III scored.16–6
- 9Hassell III doubled to left, Millas scored, Young to third.16–4
- 8Bleday doubled to left, Kurtz scored and Rooker scored.16–3
- 8Rooker doubled to left, Schuemann scored and Langeliers scored, Kurtz to third.14–3
- 7Hernaiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Kurtz scored.12–3
- 7Langeliers homered to center (419 feet).11–3
- 6House hit sacrifice fly to center, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.10–3
- 6Lowe walked, Abrams scored, García Jr. to second, Wood to third.10–2
- 5Langeliers homered to left (387 feet).10–1
- 4House singled to right, García Jr. scored, House out stretching at second, Lowe to third.9–1
- 4Bleday homered to center (418 feet), Rooker scored.9–0
- 4Rooker singled to right, Kurtz scored.7–0
- 3Soderstrom singled to left, Thomas scored, Hernaiz to second.6–0
- 1Hernaiz homered to center (400 feet), Bleday scored.5–0
- 1Bleday singled to center, Kurtz scored and Rooker scored.3–0
- 1Langeliers homered to center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML ATH +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +10 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +28 Elo | WSH 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 15th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 21–3429th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 144628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–55 | 55–56 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 48–39 | 53–38 |
| Overs–unders | 61–53 | 61–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 2–4 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.
