Athletics at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Colby ThomasBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting1-3
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kurtz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Schuemann scored, Langeliers out at second.6–0
- 8Soderstrom homered to right (354 feet).5–0
- 4Thomas hit sacrifice fly to left, Hernaiz scored.4–0
- 2Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to center, Urías scored.3–0
- 2Thomas homered to center (406 feet), Hernaiz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 59%
- ML ATH -160 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ATH: Elo 54.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −18 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +29 Elo | ATH 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 22–3529th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 26th of 301459 | Elo rating | 144328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–56 | 56–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 49–39 | 54–38 |
| Overs–unders | 62–54 | 62–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–5 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
