San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ramon LaureanoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4
- Spencer BivensPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Koss hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.11–1
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to left, Laureano scored, Cronenworth to second.11–0
- 5Laureano homered to left (397 feet), O'Hearn scored.10–0
- 5O'Hearn doubled to left, Bogaerts scored.8–0
- 2Machado scored on a passed ball by Bailey, Merrill to second on passed ball by Bailey.7–0
- 2Machado scored on a passed ball by Bailey, Merrill to second on passed ball by Bailey.7–0
- 2Machado doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by left fielder Ramos.6–0
- 2Arraez hit sacrifice fly to right, Díaz scored.5–0
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to center, Cronenworth scored and Laureano scored, Díaz to third.4–0
- 2Cronenworth singled to center, Bogaerts scored and O'Hearn scored, Laureano to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SD -150 / SF +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- SD: Elo 58.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -135
- SF +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −24 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 1.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +59 Elo | SD 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 29–3024th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–53 | 48–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–37 | 19–53 |
| Underdog | 39–16 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 51–69 | 55–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 21–13 SF in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 34.