San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3
- Dylan CeasePitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5T. Hernández homered to center (411 feet).0–6
- 2Freeman safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Merrill, Ohtani scored and Smith scored, Freeman safe at second.0–5
- 1Conforto singled to right, Betts scored and Smith scored, Pages to third.0–3
- 1T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML SD +100 / LAD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 3.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +15 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +41 Elo | LAD 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 39–248th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 15482nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–53 | 51–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 39–63 |
| Underdog | 40–16 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–70 | 64–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 16–23 LAD in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 39.