Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman homered to left center (434 feet), Farmer scored.7–10
- 8Farmer singled to left, Karros scored on error and Doyle scored on fielding error by left fielder Gurriel Jr..7–8
- 8Doyle doubled to center, Beck scored and Bernabel scored, Karros to third.7–6
- 7Freeman grounded out to second, Ritter scored.7–4
- 7Ritter tripled to center, Fernández scored.7–3
- 7Del Castillo homered to right (384 feet), Carroll scored.7–2
- 5Del Castillo doubled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored.5–2
- 5Gurriel Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Perdomo scored.4–2
- 3Beck doubled to right, Goodman scored.3–2
- 3Gurriel Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Marte scored, Carroll to second.3–1
- 3Marte doubled to right, Perdomo scored on throwing error by right fielder Fernández, Marte to third.2–1
- 2Bernabel homered to left center (412 feet).1–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Marte scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML ARI -175 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 63.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +17 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +99 Elo | ARI 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 17–4330th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 138130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–59 | 60–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 58–58 |
| Overs–unders | 63–60 | 55–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 27–10 COL in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 37.