Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-4
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Farmer singled to center, Doyle scored, Karros to second.3–0
- 4Goodman homered to left (442 feet), Tovar scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 62%
- ML COL +155 / STL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- STL: Elo 71.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +4 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +157 Elo | STL 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–46 | Road vs home | 35–2514th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301377 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–61 | 59–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 22–37 |
| Underdog | 55–57 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 54–64 | 62–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–9 STL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.