Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6McCarthy singled to center, Marte scored, McCarthy to second, Gurriel Jr. thrown out at third.3–4
- 5Beck doubled to right, Freeman scored.2–4
- 4Fernández grounded out to first, Karros scored, Doyle to third.2–3
- 4Locklear grounded out to third, Gurriel Jr. scored.2–2
- 4McCarthy reached on infield single to second, Carroll scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.1–2
- 3Moniak hit sacrifice fly to left, Ritter scored.0–2
- 1Goodman homered to center (449 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 63%
- ML ARI -190 / COL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 66.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −14 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +121 Elo | ARI 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 6.530th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 16–4330th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 137930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–58 | 59–62 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 57–58 |
| Overs–unders | 63–59 | 55–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 27–9 COL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 36.