Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Kyle FarmerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle homered to left center (419 feet).8–2
- 7Carroll doubled to center, Perdomo scored, Marte to third.8–1
- 5Farmer homered to left (404 feet).7–1
- 4Marte doubled to center, Perdomo scored and Herrera scored.7–0
- 2Herrera homered to right (381 feet), Thomas scored.5–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to right center (416 feet), Perdomo scored and Carroll scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML ARI -175 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 65.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.7 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +115 Elo | ARI 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 16th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 16–4230th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 138130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–58 | 59–61 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 57–57 |
| Overs–unders | 63–58 | 55–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 26–9 COL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 35.