Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman homered to center (436 feet), Karros scored.6–5
- 7Fulford hit sacrifice fly to center, Karros scored.4–5
- 6Moniak homered to right center (413 feet).3–5
- 5Burleson homered to right (410 feet), Winn scored.2–5
- 5Fulford grounded out to second, Karros scored, Fernández to second.2–3
- 4Nootbaar homered to right center (393 feet).1–3
- 4Tovar singled to center, Freeman scored, Moniak to second.1–2
- 2Pagés doubled to left, Saggese scored and Nootbaar scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- STL 66%
- ML COL +185 / STL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- STL: Elo 66.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -197
- COL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +121 Elo | STL 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 3015–46 | Road vs home | 35–2614th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 30th of 301380 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–61 | 59–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 22–38 |
| Underdog | 56–57 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 54–65 | 62–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–9 STL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.