Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nabil CrismattPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ryan RitterBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCann hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored, Thomas to second, Locklear to third.5–6
- 8Fulford doubled to left, Bernabel scored.4–6
- 7Moniak singled to center, Karros scored and Ritter scored.4–5
- 7Ritter singled to right, Bernabel scored and Fulford scored, Karros to second.4–3
- 6Thomas singled to center, Locklear scored.4–1
- 6McCarthy scored on fielding error by third baseman Arcia, Locklear stole third.3–1
- 6McCarthy scored on fielding error by third baseman Arcia, Locklear stole third.3–1
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left (374 feet).2–1
- 6Carroll homered to right center (474 feet).1–1
- 5Arcia singled to right, Doyle scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML ARI -145 / COL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 68.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -130
- COL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.5 – 6.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −23 | ARI: Nabil Crismatt (no track record yet) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +134 Elo | ARI 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 18–4330th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301506 | Elo rating | 138430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–60 | 61–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 59–58 |
| Overs–unders | 64–60 | 56–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 27–11 COL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 38.