San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts homered to left center (394 feet).4–5
- 8Iglesias grounded out to shortstop, Bogaerts scored, Laureano to third.4–4
- 6O'Hearn doubled to right, Sheets scored.3–4
- 5Laureano homered to right center (372 feet).2–4
- 3Tatis Jr. doubled to right, Cronenworth scored.1–4
- 1Pages homered to left center (385 feet).0–4
- 1Freeman homered to center (422 feet), Ohtani scored and Betts scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML SD +115 / LAD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +31 Elo | LAD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 40–247th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–54 | 52–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 40–63 |
| Underdog | 40–17 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–71 | 64–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 16–24 LAD in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 40.