Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 1Pham doubled to left, Horwitz scored and Reynolds scored.1–2
- 1Springer homered to left (355 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML TOR -155 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −6 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–32 | Road vs home | 35–3016th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 8th of 301522 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–55 | 64–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–33 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 51–36 |
| Overs–unders | 74–53 | 54–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–2 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.