Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canario homered to right center (426 feet).0–9
- 6Pham homered to left center (435 feet), Reynolds scored.0–8
- 6Horwitz homered to right (374 feet).0–6
- 2McCutchen doubled to right, Horwitz scored and Pham scored.0–5
- 2Horwitz doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.0–3
- 1McCutchen doubled to center, Pham scored and N. Gonzales scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 67%
- ML COL +195 / PIT -235
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 67.0%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -207
- COL +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +10 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +123 Elo | PIT 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3016–46 | Road vs home | 36–3015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 30th of 301387 | Elo rating | 146426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–64 | 65–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 62–60 | 52–36 |
| Overs–unders | 58–70 | 54–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–9 PIT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.